Each trend is shown globally, nationally and in Western Australia, with the implication for providers. Figures are the most recent published; sources are listed at the end.
Trend 1 · Demand
More older people, needing more care, for longer
The population aged 85 and over is the fastest-growing group in most developed economies, and it is the group that uses the most care.
Global
- By 2030, 1 in 6 people worldwide will be over 60.
- Old-age dependency ratios reach unprecedented levels across the OECD within 35 years.
Australia
- People aged 85+ double to over 1 million by around 2042.
- 106,977 people waiting for an ongoing Support at Home place at 30 June 2026, up from 100,191 in March.
- Home care demand grows by 34,500 people a year, to 1.82 million by 2044.
Western Australia
- People aged 75+ grow by 47,000 between 2026 and 2030; residential demand rises 4–5% a year to 2040.
- 18,500 people in residential care; occupancy 96.5%, with homes up to 98% full.
- Older patients stranded in WA hospitals awaiting aged care rose from 230 to 423 in twelve months.
So whatEvery provider will be asked to serve more people without proportionally more beds or staff. The ones that can see their own capacity clearly will be the ones that grow.
Trend 2 · Workforce
The workforce gap becomes the binding constraint
Care minutes are legislated. The people to deliver them are not available at the rate they are needed.
Global
- WHO projects a shortfall of 11.1 million health workers by 2030; 67 countries will lack the staff to maintain current standards.
- One in four doctors is nearing retirement age.
Australia
- CEDA estimates 110,000 additional FTE direct care workers are needed by 2030, and over 400,000 by 2050.
- The measured shortfall rose from 17,000 to 35,000 in one year.
Western Australia
- WA's largest providers estimate 2,179 more FTE direct care workers are needed over five years, including 440+ registered nurses.
- Regional beds are already offline for want of staff, sending older people long distances for care.
So whatHours spent on administration are hours the sector cannot afford. The first proof point for any technology is time returned to care, measured.
Trend 3 · Economics
Margins have broken and capital has moved inside the provider
Revenue is growing more slowly than the cost of care. New beds cannot earn their cost of capital, so the sector consolidates.
Global
- Population ageing is projected to slow GDP growth and increase fiscal pressure across most OECD economies, which limits what governments can add to care funding.
Australia
- 62% of residential homes operated at a loss in the nine months to March 2026, up from 49%. Average result: –$9.16 per bed day.
- Direct care margin fell from $18.46 to $5.91 per bed day.
- Provider numbers fell from 807 to 636 (FY18–FY25). The top 25 now hold 46.4% of places; no new residential providers entered in FY25.
Western Australia
- A new bed costs about $650,000 to build, up 47% since 2020, and takes four to five years.
- Investment in new facilities is down 75% since 2019–20. Beds fell by 119 in 2025; about 670 are reported offline.
So whatThe decisions that matter most (which beds to reinstate, which sites to reconfigure, whom to merge with) are portfolio decisions made on thin evidence and long board cycles.
Trend 4 · Place of care
Care moves home, and the home becomes a care setting
Older people prefer to stay at home, and governments prefer the cost. Technology is making it safer to do so for longer.
Global
- Ageing in place is being built on remote monitoring, predictive models and connected homes that flag frailty or infection before symptoms become acute.
- Tech-enabled home care attracts capital: Cera (UK) raised US$150m; Honor (US) has raised US$625m.
Australia
- Support at Home replaced Home Care Packages on 1 November 2025.
- Over 352,000 people receive home care packages against about 260,000 in residential care.
- Claiming is now transaction-based with granular service coding; incorrect codes are rejected.
Western Australia
- With residential supply unable to close the 2030 gap, keeping people well at home and returning people home from short-stay care become capacity strategies in their own right.
- Distance makes this harder: 97% of the Kimberley is classified very remote.
So whatProviders that run both home and residential care need one view across both. Today most run them on separate systems with separate teams.
Trend 5 · Regulation
A rights-based Act raises the evidence bar
Regulators increasingly expect providers to show, with data, that care meets the standard.
Global
- Regulators are building controlled routes for AI: the UK's MHRA runs an AI Airlock to test AI medical technology under oversight.
Australia
- The Aged Care Act 2024 commenced on 1 November 2025, with universal provider registration and seven strengthened Quality Standards.
- The Aged Care Data and Digital Strategy 2024–29 moves provider reporting to government APIs through the Government Provider Management System.
- Privacy Act amendments require transparency about automated decisions that use personal information.
Western Australia
- WA's largest providers are asking for a Commonwealth–WA infrastructure partnership, a workforce compact and a statewide aged care data and planning platform.
So whatCompliance is now continuous rather than periodic. The cost of assembling evidence falls on the same people who deliver care.
Trend 6 · Technology
AI arrives, administration first, with trust as the price of entry
Low-risk administrative uses move first because the time saved is immediate. Anything that touches a decision about a person is held to a much higher standard.
Global
- The AI in elder care market is estimated at US$67.6bn in 2026, growing about 24% a year.
- Japan: 63% of nursing homes used monitoring robots in 2022, but only 26% used mobility robots; adoption follows cost and fit, not novelty.
Australia
- The Integrated Assessment Tool is under Ombudsman investigation after 800 complaints; assessors cannot fully override its results.
- The TGA regulates AI as a medical device where it monitors, predicts or diagnoses, and has flagged compliance action on some AI scribes.
- A five-year federal plan is developing an AI framework for aged care, starting with small pilots.
Western Australia
- WA providers are asking for shared data and planning infrastructure, which gives the state a reason to back a provider-led intelligence layer rather than wait for one.
So whatHuman in the loop, visible sources and an override are now selling points. A tool that cannot show its reasoning will not pass a board.
For noting · Western Australia
In July 2026, seven WA providers (Amana Living, BaptistCare, Bethanie, Brightwater, Hall & Prior, Juniper and Southern Cross Care WA), serving more than 27,000 older people with 13,500 staff, released the From Rights to Reality green paper through Advance Ageing WA. Among nine recommendations is a statewide aged care data and planning platform.
"Unless we get creative with construction methods, it takes four to five years to build a new facility. We're in trouble." — Russell Bricknell, CEO, Juniper